WTPN21 PHNC 210100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200051ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 120.7W TO 17.2N 127.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 121.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2N 114.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR, APPROXIMATELY 1233 NM SOUTH OF SAN 
DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
202150Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW FAINT, FLARING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW 
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, UNFAVORABLE (25-
30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95E WILL TREK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 
200100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
220100Z.
//
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