WTPN21 PHNC 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 114.1W TO 15.3N 123.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 114.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 
114.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1233 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192318Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW 
INTENSE CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95E WILL TREK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210100Z.
//
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