ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18JUL23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (TALIM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 171 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 190000Z THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 134.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 135.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 95 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WHICH IS ELONGATED ALONG A GENERAL EAST-WEST AXIS, EXTENDING
FROM WEST OF PALAU TO SOUTH OF YAP. WITHIN THIS ELONGATED REGION OF
TROFING EXISTS MULTIPLE AREAS OF VORTICITY AND ROTATION AS EVIDENCED
IN THE ANIMATED MSI. POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FLARING UP AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION BUT AT PRESENT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. A
190100Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER PLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF PALAU
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS AROUND 100 NM,
WITH MAXIMA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF YAP AND TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE 6
NORTH LATITUDE LINE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT-CELL LOCATED
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ZESTY SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 98W WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF PALAU FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT TOWARDS THE NORTH AROUND TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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