ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17JUL23 0000Z, TYPHOON 04W (TALIM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 
113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.8N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST OF 
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP BROAD CONVECTION ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 170001Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A DEFINED 
BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FEW 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGER SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET 
FURTHER SOUTH OF LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE 
PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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