ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16JUL23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (TALIM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
19.1N 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N 
136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT WESTERLIES. A 160222Z GMI 
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLC. PTRO OBSERVATIONS REVEAL 15-16 KT SUSTAINED WINDS, 1006 
MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE, AND A 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1.7 MB.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
CHARACTERIZED BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT 
STEADILY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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