ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/ 140551JUL2023
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7E APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
THAT HAS EMERGED BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED SOUTHWESTWARD 
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN PIPING HOT (30-31C), PROVIDING 
AMPLE ENERGY FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95W 
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A 
MEANDERING TRACK AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES, FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY 
SLOW TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG WITH THE 
SYSTEM LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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