WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 121.2E TO 18.5N 117.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8N 120.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7E APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
THAT HAS EMERGED BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED SOUTHWESTWARD 
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN PIPING HOT (30-31C), PROVIDING 
AMPLE ENERGY FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95W 
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A 
MEANDERING TRACK AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES, FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY 
SLOW TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG WITH THE 
SYSTEM LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150600Z.
//
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