ABPW10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/132200Z-140600ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 126.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM 
NORTH OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION,GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE EASTERNPERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL 
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
EXCEEDING 400NM IN DIAMETER WITH DISORGANIZED, BUILDING CONVECTION 
OVER THE LLCC. A 131950Z SSMIS 89\37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A 
BROAD, BUILDING, WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG 
DIFFLUENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY ENHANCED BY DEEP 
EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS LOW (5-15 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM 30-31C SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NOW THAT THE 
MONSOON CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF LUZON, 
TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE REGIONS ARE EVIDENT. ONE TO THE EAST AND THE 
OTHER TO THE WEST OF LUZON. GFS, ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TOGETHER 
WITH NVGM ALL INDICATE THE CIRCULATION THAT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF 
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL EMERGE THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AND 
EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT 
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL 
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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