ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 126.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM WITH A VERY BROAD, GRADUALLY DEEPING 
CORE OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND PREDOMINANTLY 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
BULK OF THE SYSTEM DISPLACED OUTWARDS OF 120 NM FROM SYSTEM CENTER. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL 
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
EXCEEDING 600NM IN DIAMETER WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION 
OVER THE LLCC. A 122238Z SSMIS 89\37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES 
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN 
PERIPHERIES WITH FLARING CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ENHANCED BY DEEP EASTERLY 
FLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.  A GFS-BASED AREAL SOUNDING 
WITHIN THE 1004MB ISOBAR FIELD SHOWS FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT. SST ARE FAVORABLE IN THE AREA AT 
30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK 
TOWARD LUZON AND THE LUZON STRAIT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GRADUAL 
DEEPENING AND DEVELOPMENT OF A 25-30 KNOT MONSOON DEPRESSION. 
INTENSITY TIMELINES AND LLC GENESIS AREAS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TAU 
24 FORWARD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF MULITPLE AREAS OF 
ROATION AND VORTICITY ACROSS A WIDE EXPANSE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC 
AND SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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