ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 
126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THIS SYSTEM 
IS CLASSIFIED AS A 600NM DIAMETER MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM WITH 
A VERY BROAD, WEAK CORE OF 5-10 KNOT WINDS, A SMALL PATCH OF 20 KNOT 
WINDS DISPLACED 110-130NM TO THE NNE, AND PREDOMINANTLY 15 KNOT WINDS 
SURROUNDING THE WEAK CORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OVER 
THE LLCC. A 120433Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, 
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES 
WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT 
EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST ARE FAVORABLE IN THE AREA 
AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON AND 
THE LUZON STRAIT OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEEPENING 
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A 25-30 KNOT MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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