WTPN21 PHNC 102000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 99.6W TO 12.1N 109.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 100.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 
100.2W, APPROXIMATELY 569NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY DENSE CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED 
BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLC. A 101646Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND  VERY WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94E WITH CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
112000Z.//
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