WTPN21 PHNC 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071921Z JUL 23//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 071930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 106.5W TO 19.7N 113.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 108.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.7N 106.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.6W, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM 
SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT WRAPPING 
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 081324Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE AND 081726Z ASCAT-B ALSO DEPICTS A BROAD LLC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 25 KNOT WINDS DIRECTLY SOUTH AND 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ZONAL EASTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15 TO 20KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SST 
VALUES (29 TO 30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 92E WILL TRACK 
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 071930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
091930Z.
//
NNNN