WTPN21 PHNC 071930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061921ZJUL23//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 106.5W TO 19.7N 113.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 106.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.6N 108.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 1218 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WITH A MORE DEFINED 
CIRCULATION, INVEST 93E IS STARTING TO STRENGTHEN. A 071338Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A BROAD LLC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20 TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SST 
VALUES (28 TO 29C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY TAU 24 
WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 061930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
081930Z.
//
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