WTPN21 PHNC 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 220 NM RADIUS OF 12.6N 108.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 108.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 
108.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1306 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 
061352Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A BROAD LLC WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND FAVORABLE SST VALUES (28 TO 29C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD 
TURN BY TAU 48 WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071930Z.//
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