WTPN21 PHNC 290000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280430ZJUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 95.4W TO 15.7N 102.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 95.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 
95.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1732NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. INVEST 92E HAS 
BEEN ON THE MOVE AND OUTRAN THE PREVIOUS TCFA BOX, NECESSITATING A 
REISSUANCE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED FORMATIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. 
ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 92E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM 
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AGREEMENT ON A 
SLOW AND STEADY TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING ALONG THE 
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 280430).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
300000Z.//
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