WTPN21 PHNC 280430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 91.4W TO 11.9N 96.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 92.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 
92.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1900NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA 
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, 
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE LATTER PART OF THIS 
WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS, ROUGHLY PARALLEL 
TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO.  INTERESTS ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM 
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290430Z.
//
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