WTPN21 PHNC 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270851Z JUN 23//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 270900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 101.2W TO 15.3N 104.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 101.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 
102.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1334 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC, MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280900Z.
//
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