ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZJUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09JUN23 0000Z, TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 
130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.9N 108.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
NORTHWEST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI), ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 082337Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION. A 090213Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 10-15 KT WINDS OVER WATER TO 
THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL HINDER 
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL 
TRACK SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AND SLOWLY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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