WTIO21 PGTW 051300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 130 NM RADIUS OF 11.0N 66.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 66.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8N 66.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 66.1E, APPROXIMATELY 826 NM SOUTH 
OF KARACHI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 050910Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY 
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE VERY WARM (30-31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A SLOW 
POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061300Z.
//
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