ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050551JUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050017Z ASCAT-B 
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH 
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 98W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 050600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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