ABPW10 PGTW 030330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030330Z-030600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZJUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03JUN23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 30.7N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 142.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 311 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC AS EVIDENCED BY A 020032Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE 
PASS. CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 
RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THUS FAR, CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMELINE AND 
LOCATION OF FORMATION. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF 
THE CIRCULATION WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF GUAM, BUT THE EASTERN INFLOW 
REGION WITH ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD 
AFFECT GUAM AND THE CNMI IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 1.A.(1) WITH 02W FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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