ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZJUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02JUN23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 27.0N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, 
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 
142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC AS 
EVIDENCED BY A 020032Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE PASS. CONSOLIDATION OF 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THUS FAR, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION OF FORMATION. 
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL 
PASS TO THE WEST OF GUAM, BUT THE EASTERN INFLOW REGION WITH 
ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD AFFECT GUAM 
AND THE CNMI IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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