ABPW10 PGTW 190830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190830Z-200600ZMAY2023//
REF/A/MSG//JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 182327Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30-31C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS 
IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT 
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH WHERE THE PRIMARY LLCC WILL EVENTUALLY 
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, ONCE THE LLCC IS ESTABLISHED, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL BECOME A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY 
SUBSEQUENT WARNING AND ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY 
CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 190800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: RELOCATED AREA IN 1.B.(1) ASSOCIATED WITH 
REF A.//
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