WTPN23 PGTW 190800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) REISSUED/
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 149.2E TO 7.7N 148.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 149.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 182327Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE (30-31C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY 
ASSOCIATED WITH WHERE THE PRIMARY LLCC WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, 
ONCE THE LLCC IS ESTABLISHED, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY SUBSEQUENT WARNING AND 
ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION OF 
THE LLCC ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPN22 PGTW 190200Z).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
200800Z.
//
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