WTPN22 PGTW 190130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951ZMAY2023// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 147.8E TO 7.4N 147.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 147.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSMIS 91GHZ 181918Z IMAGE INDICATES THAT A DOMINANT LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND IT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE VORTICITY IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE PRESENT LLCC. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE COMING DAYS. ANY SUBSEQUENT WARNING AND ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC ONCE IT BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 182000). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200130Z. // NNNN