ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 180600Z-190600ZMAY2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 180330Z, THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
472 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 170200Z HIMAWARI IR IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC 
WITH INITIAL SIGNS OF WRAPPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND FLARING 
OVERHEAD CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SST, AND ZONAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, TOWARDS GUAM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN 97W 
WILL DEVELOP, HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WHEN IT DOES 
CONSOLIDATE IT WILL FULLY DEVELOP, AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 
TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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