ABIO10 PGTW 131800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z- 141800ZMAY2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZMAY2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 13MAY23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 90.8E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 131221Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LOW-TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN