ABIO10 PGTW 130730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/130730Z-131800ZMAY2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13MAY23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
15.3N 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
2.3S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.8S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 832 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
130049Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
130317Z ASCAT-B PASS HIGHLIGHTS AN OUTER BAND OF 35-40KT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC UNDER THE FLARING CONVECTION AND A BROAD AND 
ELONGATED LLCC DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LOW-TO-
MODERATE (15-20KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS AGREE THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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