ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z-
131800ZMAY2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12MAY23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MOCHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 494 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.3S 
86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 894 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURING WITH BUILDING CONVECTION OVER AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 121204Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF 
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 92S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG 
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AN IMPRESSIVE 850MB VORTICITY 
SIGNATURE, MODERATE (15-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS, NAVGEM, AND CMC DETERMINISTIC MODELS, 
ALONG WITH A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, INDICATE A DEVELOPING TROPICAL 
SYSTEM WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. WHEREAS THE EC AND ICON DETERMINISTIC MODELS, 
ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF ECENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SHOW A DEVELOPING 
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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