ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-
111800ZMAY2023//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.6N 88.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST 
OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101234Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF 
THE LLC AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EAST. A PARTIAL 101524Z 
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITH A FEW 35KT WIND BARBS 
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 91B IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AS 
REFLECTED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, A WEDGE OF MID-LEVEL DRY 
AIR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
SST ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT A VERY WARM 30-31C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE, AS IT TRACKS 
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 101400) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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