ABIO10 PGTW 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/101430Z-101800ZMAY2023//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3N 88.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 517 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) 
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 89.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 88.7E, 
APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100951Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES TO THE EAST AND WEST WRAPPING INTO A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 91B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED BY LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20KT) VWS, AND A WEDGE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, 
OFFSET BY WARM (30-31C) SSTS, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE, WITH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) STEADILY DECREASING, 
WHILE MOVING IN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 101400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN 1.B.(1).//
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