WTIO21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 88.8E TO 14.9N 87.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 88.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 89.0E, IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100951Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES TO 
THE EAST AND WEST WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 91B 
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AS 
REFLECTED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND A WEDGE OF MID-LEVEL DRY 
AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, OFFSET BY WARM (30-31C) SSTS, AND GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE, WITH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM 
WINDS (RMW) STEADILY DECREASING, WHILE MOVING IN A GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 
091400).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
111400Z.
//
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