ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZMAY2023//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZMAY2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3N 88.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 604 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231004Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL 
FLARING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED, 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS PLACES 91B IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO VERY WARM (31-32C) SST, LOW (05-10KT) VWS, AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTER LLCC. ONCE THE LLCC 
BECOMES CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL 
QUICKLY INTENSIFY PAST WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 091400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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