WTIO21 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 88.7E TO 12.8N 86.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 
33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 88.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2N 89.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 88.3E, APPROXIMATELY 551 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 231004Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL FLARING CONVECTIVE 
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS PLACES 91B IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DUE TO VERY WARM (31-32C) SST, LOW 
(05-10KT) VWS, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE 
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTER LLCC. ONCE THE LLCC 
BECOMES CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL 
QUICKLY INTENSIFY PAST WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
101400Z.
//
NNNN