ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZMAY2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 
93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH OF PORT 
BLAIR. CIRA PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081336 89GHZ GMI 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A WEAK, TROUGH-LIKE AREA OF LOWER LEVEL TURNING 
WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETRY DEPICTS MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE NOT YET 
CONSOLIDATED, WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND 5-10 
KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND VERY 
WARM (30-31C) SST. AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND WESTERLY WIND 
BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL IS ENHANCING THE 
POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS 850 MB RELATIVE 
VORTICITY FORECAST SHOWS A STRONG SIGNATURE BECOMING WELL DEFINED BY TAU 
48. ALTHOUGH INVEST 91B IS WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME, GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL 
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF BENGAL.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN