ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z-
081800ZMAY2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 
93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 071535 ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL WEAK LOWER 
LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF AN 
ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31-32C) SST. AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE 
ENVELOPE AND WESTERLY WIND BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER THE BAY 
OF BENGAL IS CONDUCIVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS 850 MB 
RELATIVE VORTICITY FORECAST SHOWS A STRONG SIGNATURE BECOMING WELL 
DEFINED BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST LOOK AT THIS LLC SHOWS A WEAK 
CIRCULATION, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 91B WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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