ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZAPR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190121ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.9N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MSI AND A 190317Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
WELL DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 92W 
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT 
ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS AND NAVGEM INDICATING WEAKER 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 190130) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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