ABPW10 PGTW 190130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190130Z-190600ZAPR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190121ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.2N 160.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 
182005Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 92W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING 
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS AND NAVGEM INDICATING 
WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
190130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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