WTPN21 PGTW 190130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.7N 159.9E TO 9.0N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.9N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2N 160.4E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 182005Z SSMIS 
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A WELL DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 
(05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT ARE SPLIT ON 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE 
NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS AND NAVGEM INDICATING WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
200130Z.
//
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