WTPN21 PGTW 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W) CANCELLATION// 
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110221ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110230). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 127.1E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST OF LEGAZPI, 
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 
112022Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
NORTHWEST. DESPITE HAVING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 90W IS IN AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS, LAND INTERACTION AND 
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE 
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN 
VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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