ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.7N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM 
EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SIGNS OF WRAPPING IN 
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN ASSESSED 
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH. UPON CLOSELY MONITORING THIS DISTURBANCE, 
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE SUPPORTING AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. A 110056Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 20-25 
KTS, WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 30-35 KTS IN A CONCENTRATED AREA TO THE 
WEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). HOWEVER, THESE 
ELEVATED WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND 
ARE NOT WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC. A 102152Z SSMIS IMAGE ALONG WITH THE 
MSI LOOP INDICATE THERE IS MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL WRAPPING OF CONVECTIVE 
BANDING TAKING PLACE, HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SUGGESTION OF A TIGHTENED 
SURFACE CIRCULATION DUE TO LACK OF ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW. COMPARISON 
BETWEEN THE 37 GHZ AND 91 GHZ OF THE SSMIS IMAGES REVEALS THE SYSTEM 
IS TILTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE 
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE 
THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DUE 
TO AN INCREASE IN VWS, LAND INTERACTION AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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