ABPW10 PGTW 110230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110230Z-110600ZAPR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110221ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0N 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 217 
NM EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SIGNS OF WRAPPING IN 
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN ASSESSED 
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH. UPON CLOSELY MONITORING THIS DISTURBANCE, 
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE SUPPORTING AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. A 101223Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 20-25 KTS, 
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 30-35 KTS IN A CONCENTRATED AREA TO THE WEST OF 
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). HOWEVER, THESE ELEVATED 
WINDS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ARE NOT 
WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC. A 102152Z SSMIS IMAGE ALONG WITH THE MSI LOOP 
INDICATE THERE IS MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL WRAPPING OF CONVECTIVE BANDING 
TAKING PLACE, HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SUGGESTION OF A TIGHTENED SURFACE 
CIRCULATION DUE TO LACK OF ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 
37 GHZ AND 91 GHZ OF THE SSMIS IMAGES REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS TILTED 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER 
LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 90W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
GLOBAL AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS, LAND 
INTERACTION AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEING 
INTRODUCED FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110230) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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