WTPN21 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 134.8E TO 13.7N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 092350Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 134.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2N 136.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 656 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE STRONGEST 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 041000Z 
SHOWS WINDS COMING FROM THE EAST AT 20 KNOTS AND WITH A MEAN SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE 1004 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), AND WARM (30-31C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110230Z.
//
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