ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZAPR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4S 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS 
BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH STRONG (30-40KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
ADDITIONALLY, THE REGION IS ALSO CURRENTLY UNDER A WEAK MJO SIGNAL. 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK 
INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS AND THEN RAPIDLY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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