ABIO10 PGTW 072000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/072000Z-081800ZAPR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD 
OF A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 071319Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS 
SHOWS AN AREA OF 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST SECTORS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION WITH STRONG (30-KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM 
(29-30C) SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE INVEST IS 
CURRENTLY IN A REGION THAT HAS SUPPORT FROM A WEAK MJO SIGNAL. MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO 
AN AREA OF LOWER VWS AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072000) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH //
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