WTXS21 PGTW 072000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3S 130.2E TO 11.4S 127.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071740Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 131.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A 
PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 071319Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 
AN AREA OF 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST SECTORS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH 
STRONG (30-KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SST AND STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE INVEST IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION THAT 
HAS SUPPORT FROM A WEAK MJO SIGNAL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082000Z.
//
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