ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.4N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE STILL DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070040Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE 
REVEALED THE EASTERN SIDE OF 90W TO HAVE A CONSISTENT WIND FIELD OF 10-
15KTS FLOWING INTO THE LLC WITH LARGER SWATH OF 20 KNOTS AND SOME 
CONVECTION INDUCED 25 KNOT AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WEAK OUTFLOW, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY FAVORABLE SSTS 
(30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE ON A 
NORTH, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF 
90W, AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH THIS AREA, 
WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD, WILL INFLUENCE THE CONSOLIDATION OF 90W OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, A MODERATE COLD SURGE EVENT WILL 
BEGIN TO INFLUENCE AND POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 36. 
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WHILE THE ECMWF 
IS MORE SLUGGISH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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