ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z-
081800ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 131.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A 
PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 071319Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 
AN AREA OF 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST SECTORS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH 
STRONG (30-KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SST AND STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE INVEST IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION THAT 
HAS SUPPORT FROM A WEAK MJO SIGNAL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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