ABIO10 PGTW 062330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/062330Z-071800ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 
132.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH OF 
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062111Z 
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PERSISTENT CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION 
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER THAT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE BAND OF 
DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF 25-30KT 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (20-25KT) 
VWS, OFFSET BY VERY WARM (30-31C) SST AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
ADDITIONALLY, THE INVEST IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION THAT HAS SUPPORT FROM A 
WEAK MJO SIGNAL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE ON 
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY OUTSIDE 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM. //
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