ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.0S 132.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 061248Z 89GHZ METOP-C MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY VERY 
WARM (30-31C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE INVEST 
IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION THAT HAS SUPPORT FROM A WEAK MJO SIGNAL. MODELS 
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK 
AND INTENSIFY OUTSIDE 96 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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